The report recommends that Israel focus on air power and missile defense to deter its enemies and respond to any attack. It also urges policy-makers to seek Israel's participation in a pro-U.S. alliance similar to that formed in the 1991 Gulf war.
It's plain they are in a bankruptcy of strategic thought. The first portion of that recommendation is already being implemented. Neither Egypt or Syria are going to attack anytime soon. Why should they when Hezbollah has shown the way with protracted low-intensity conflict? Demographics and time are on their side. The idea that Iran went nuclear solely on Israel's account is an example of inflated egos. Iran is now surrounded by nuclear powers. They'd have to be insane not to follow suit. Israel could disappear this afternoon without affecting Iran's nuclear program in the slightest degree.
The second recommendation of a 'Pro-US alliance'
in this context is just code for direct U.S. troop commitments. This
is a revival in lingerie of the previous proposal for placing a US Heavy
Corps and all its paraphernalia in and around the Golan plateau to fend
off both the Syrians and Hezbollah. Such a deployment is not going
to happen spontaneously or because the US Department of Defense likes the
idea. The Zionists may own both U.S. political parties but they have
no surplus of friends in the Department of Defense. And Mr.
Clinton's Army of 10 divisional shells makes it plain the U.S. will have
to reactivate a heavy corps to replace the one deployed. With 2 divisions
in Europe and 1 in Korea Mother Hubbard's cupboard is
How would such a U.S. deployment happen? The only scenario I can see is the new modus operandi of sending in U.S. troops to secure a 'peace agreement' ala Bosnia. The Knesset's refusal to stage another Bibi election makes one fact very plain: Three months of Intifada have made the IDF and the political elites realize they really have to make a deal with Arafat that will include East Jerusalem. The Israeli electorate is therefore being presented a choice between Barak and Neanderthal Man in the form of Sharon. The average Israeli voter knows that Sharon is both in his dotage and will never be negotiated with by any Palestinian.
This conference is the venue for pounding this fact in to the heads of dozens of political parties. It also appears to be an extra-constitutional political summit to arrive at final real peace terms to be offered to Arafat and Assad Junior. Checking some sources I found that not only is the IDF General Staff and Mossad appearing here, but every corps and ugda commander as well. These guys are meeting to make final decisions.
This also brings up the structure of a new round of talks. The last set had an empty chair marked 'Syria'. So as part of a projected comprehensive agreement with both the PA and Syria a US Heavy Corps goes into the Golan, or half in the Golan and half in Israel. This leaves the 'fair broker' to police East Jerusalem. After Sharon's latest stunt at Al Aqsa, no Arab will ever trust Israeli security forces up there again. Neither will Israelis trust the PA police. No one will trust the UN and its Mix 'N' Match Peackeeper Forces for something like this, especially after the UNPROFOR's last performance in Bosnia. I hear a faint air of "From the Halls of Montezuma" playing in the distance.
Lastly, except for the air wing, none of these forces come out of CINCPAC's order of battle for Taiwan. The JCS therefore cannot oppose it by pleading alternate commitments.
None of these band aids address the long-term viability question. They are still stuck with either pushing the Palestinians out of the neighborhood or getting squeezed out themselves.